Does the MCAT Fall Short in Predicting Physician Success
The MCAT has been used as one of the critical pieces to assess the readiness of students for medical school since its inception in 1928. Evaluations subsequent to its introduction clearly demonstrated it could help predict success rates in medical school. The drop-out rates, being as high as 50% in some medical schools, fell to single digit numbers. A large part of this decrease was credited to the MCAT and its ability to predict which students could survive the rigorous medical school curriculum (Evolution of the MCAT).
The AAMC itself points to the predictive value of the MCAT in terms of medical school success (Validity of MCAT). But, when this issue is looked at closely, there appears to be an inverse relationship between the predictive power of the MCAT from medical school to a physician in practice (MCAT Scores Predicting USMLE I, MCAT Predicting First Two Years of Medical School, Ethnic Performances on Licensing Exam and MCAT) Additionally, there appears to be variability of the predictive success of the MCAT with different gender, ethnic and racial groups(MCAT Prediction and Diverse Groups, MCAT Prediction of Clerkship Performance)This has led several researchers to look for other factors to use for admission and prediction of success as a physician (Prediction With Personality Characteristics, Prediction Using Psychosocial Factors, Poor Preclinical Performers).
When the full spectrum of literature is reviewed, my interpretation is:
1. The MCAT predicts success in the first two years of medical school very well;
2. The MCAT predicts success on the USMLE I well;
3. The MCAT has less predictive value for the medical school clinical years;
4. The MCAT has very little to no predictive value for predictions past the medical school years and into actual medical practice.
Why is this?
Refer To: MCAT and Cognitive Domain, MCAT and Affective Domain, MCAT and Psychomotor Domain, MCAT Validity in Perspective
